Published on: December 29, 2025
Last Updated: December 29, 2025
The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby heated up significantly in late November and December, with three major points races reshaping the leaderboard and introducing serious new contenders. As a licensed owner tracking every prep race from my barn visits to clocker reports, I’m seeing the narrative shift from “Ted Noffey’s race to lose” to a deeper, more competitive three-year-old crop than many anticipated.
This guide updates after the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Nov. 29), Remsen Stakes (Dec. 6), Gun Runner Stakes (Dec. 20), and Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec. 13), with fresh analysis on which horses took meaningful steps forward and which ones revealed vulnerabilities that could haunt them at Churchill Downs.
Table of Contents
🔥 Major December Developments
Further Ado Delivers Under Pressure
Brad Cox’s highly anticipated Gun Runner colt faced his first real test in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on November 29 and passed, though not as impressively as his 20-length maiden romp suggested he might.
Race Details:
✓ Won by 1¾ lengths over Universe
✓ Final time: 1:43.33
✓ Earned 10 Derby points
✓ View Full Equibase Profile
Further Ado showed he can win a fight—he didn’t blow past horses like in his maiden win, but he dug in when pressured. That’s a Derby quality you can’t teach. However, his Equibase figure dropped from 114 to 101, suggesting that 20-length maiden romp might have been a career-best effort.
Paladin Emerges as Chad Brown’s Derby Hope
The $1.9 million yearling purchase improved to 2-for-2 with a gutsy two-length victory in the Remsen Stakes on December 6.
Race Details:
✓ Won by 2 lengths
✓ Lost a front shoe during the race
✓ Sustained pastern cut, still won
✓ Final furlong: :12.72 (strong finish)
✓ View Full Equibase Profile
By Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare—classic stamina-loaded bloodlines. Gun Runner just sent Sierra Leone to a Breeders’ Cup Classic win, and Tapit daughters consistently produce staying types. The 1¼-mile Derby distance shouldn’t be an issue.
📊 Updated Points Leaderboard (Dec. 29, 2025)
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | Points | Key Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd Pletcher | 40 | Breeders’ Futurity (10), BC Juvenile (30) — Unbeaten in 4 |
| 2 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 | 2nd BC Juvenile — Sidelined, Derby unlikely |
| 3 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 | Won American Pharoah (10 pts) + 3 elsewhere |
| 4 | Spice Runner | Steve Asmussen | 11 | Won Iroquois (10 pts) + 1 elsewhere |
| 5 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 | Won Champagne Stakes (10 pts) |
| 6 | Paladin | Chad Brown | 10 | Won Remsen (10 pts) — 2-for-2, undefeated |
| 7 | Further Ado | Brad Cox | 10 | Won Kentucky Jockey Club (10 pts) |
| 8 | Express Kid | Brad Cox | 10 | Won Remington Mile at 34-1 |
| 9 | Chip Honcho | — | 10 | Won Gun Runner Stakes (10 pts) |
| 10 | Universe | Kenny McPeek | 8 | 3rd Champagne (3), 2nd Street Sense (5) |
Litmus Test (Bob Baffert) won Los Alamitos Futurity but remains Derby-ineligible due to Baffert’s Churchill Downs suspension. Same applies to Boyd and Brant. These horses are accumulating points but cannot run in the Derby unless transferred to eligible trainers.
🏆 December Race Recaps & Analysis
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes — Nov. 29, Churchill Downs
Winner: Further Ado (1¾ lengths)
Points: 10-5-3-2-1
Time: 1:43.33
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Further Ado stalked from fourth in a seven-horse field, challenged Soldier N Diplomat at the top of the stretch, and fought gamely through the final furlong. Universe rallied from midpack to grab second in the final strides.
Further Ado: Equibase 101 (down from 114 maiden)
Universe: Strong closer, 2nd consecutive graded placing
The fact that Universe closed so strongly suggests this race set up perfectly for stalkers, not dominant front-runners.
Remsen Stakes — Dec. 6, Aqueduct
Winner: Paladin (2 lengths)
Points: 10-5-3-2-1
Time: 1:50.97
Distance: 1⅛ miles
In a rematch of their maiden race, Paladin once again beat Renegade. After stalking in third through moderate fractions, Paladin swung wide turning for home and powered past Renegade in the stretch—despite losing a front shoe and sustaining a pastern cut.
“I like the fact that we secured Derby points and got a good education. The horse sat in the pocket, took dirt, and was able to pause and move around horses. That two-turn experience as a 2-year-old will serve him well.”
Gun Runner Stakes — Dec. 20, Fair Grounds
Winner: Chip Honcho (10 points)
The Fair Grounds debut race produced a surprise winner in Chip Honcho, who looked beaten in midstretch but found another gear to prevail. This was only his second career start, suggesting significant upside remains.
⚡ Contenders Who Made Their Move
Paladin — The Complete Package
Status: 10 points, 2-for-2, undefeated
Next Start: Likely Florida Derby trail
- ✅ Stamina-rich pedigree (Gun Runner x Tapit)
- ✅ Tactical speed, professional demeanor
- ✅ Two-turn experience at 1⅛ miles
- ✅ Elite connections (Brown, Coolmore)
- ✅ Physical/mental toughness proven
Brown is 0-for-16 as a Derby trainer. His best finishes:
• Sierra Leone (2nd, 2024)
• Zandon (3rd, 2022)
• Normandy Invasion (4th, 2023)
All three were from Gun Runner’s sire line—just like Paladin.
Universe — The Closer Nobody’s Discussing
Status: 8 points (3 graded stakes placings)
Record: 0-for-5 but improving every race
By Global Campaign (Curlin line) out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, Universe has staying power in his pedigree. He’s closing strongly in every race—exactly the running style that succeeds in chaotic 20-horse Derby fields.
Trainer Kenny McPeek won the 2002 Derby with Sarava (50-1 upset) and knows how to develop late-running Derby horses. Universe is 0-for-5 but has earned $154,700—all from graded stakes placings.
The play: If he breaks through for a win in a 20-point or 50-point prep, his odds will plummet. Grab him now at 20-1.
⚠️ Red Flags & Concerns
🚨 Ted Noffey’s Undefeated Record Might Be a Problem
Leading the points race is great, but Ted Noffey’s unbeaten streak comes with hidden risks:
- Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Curse: Only 2 of 22 BC Juvenile winners since 1984 won the Derby (Street Sense 2007, Nyquist 2016)
- Heavy Campaign: Already ran 4 races including 3 Grade 1s. Will Pletcher keep him fresh through winter to peak again May 2?
- Pletcher Pattern: His Derby horses often peak early and regress by May
Historical note: Todd Pletcher has won 3 Derbies, but his early-season dominators rarely carry that form through the spring.
According to Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form, Mr. A.P. is being given time off for a training issue and will miss the Kentucky Derby. If confirmed, this removes 15 points from the top of the leaderboard and opens the door for Paladin, Further Ado, and Universe to move up.
🔮 What January Preps Will Tell Us
The Derby trail shifts into higher gear in January with eight races offering 20 points to the winner (double the early-season preps). These races will separate legitimate Derby horses from pretenders.
Key January Tests
Lecomte Stakes (Jan. 17, Fair Grounds)
20 points to winner • Where the Derby trail gets serious • Expect Ted Noffey or Spice Runner
Holy Bull Stakes (Jan. 24, Gulfstream)
20 points to winner • Critical Florida Derby trail race • Horses pointing to Gulfstream show up here
1. Can Ted Noffey maintain form after a layoff? (Last raced Oct. 31)
2. Will Paladin and Further Ado take different paths? (Both 10-point horses from elite barns)
3. Which longshots break through? (Universe, Chip Honcho, Express Kid need wins)
💰 Futures Value & Betting Angles
Current Futures Lines (Dec. 26, 2025)
- Ted Noffey: 7-1
- Paladin: 9-1
- Boyd: 10-1 (Baffert, Derby ineligible)
- Litmus Test: 12-1 (Baffert, ineligible)
- Further Ado: 12-1
- Napoleon Solo: 15-1
- Intrepido: 18-1
- Universe: 20-1
- Chip Honcho: 25-1
Universe at 20-1: Three graded stakes placings, deep closer style perfect for Derby chaos. If he wins a 20-point or 50-point prep, odds will shrink dramatically.
Chip Honcho at 25-1: Lightly raced (2 starts), just beat competitive Gun Runner field. If he wins Lecomte or Risen Star, you’re holding a golden ticket.
Paladin at 9-1: Fair odds for this profile. If you believe Gun Runner progeny will dominate (Sierra Leone won BC Classic), Paladin is your best bet.
Ted Noffey at 7-1: Too short for a horse with BC Juvenile curse and 4-race campaign already logged
Baffert Horses: Derby ineligible as of now. Don’t bet unless suspension lifted or horses transferred
📅 Updated Prep Race Schedule (January–April 2026)
| Date | Race | Track | Distance | Points | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3 | Jerome S. | Aqueduct | 1 mile | 10-5-3-2-1 | Small field expected |
| Jan 3 | Smarty Jones S. | Oaklawn | 1 1/16 mi | 10-5-3-2-1 | Oaklawn opener |
| Jan 17 | Lecomte S. | Fair Grounds | 1 1/16 mi | 20-10-6-4-2 | Ted Noffey likely |
| Jan 24 | Holy Bull S. | Gulfstream | 1 1/16 mi | 20-10-6-4-2 | Florida Derby trail |
| Feb 1 | Robert B. Lewis S. | Santa Anita | 1 1/16 mi | 20-10-6-4-2 | West Coast spotlight |
| Feb 14 | Risen Star S. | Fair Grounds | 1 1/16 mi | 50-25-15-10-5 | Championship series |
| Feb 28 | Fountain of Youth S. | Gulfstream | 1 1/16 mi | 50-25-15-10-5 | Championship series |
| Mar 1 | San Felipe S. | Santa Anita | 1 1/16 mi | 50-25-15-10-5 | Championship series |
| Mar 28 | Florida Derby | Gulfstream | 1⅛ mi | 100-50-25-15-10 | Auto Derby berth |
| Apr 4 | Santa Anita Derby | Santa Anita | 1⅛ mi | 100-50-25-15-10 | Auto berth |
| Apr 4 | Blue Grass S. | Keeneland | 1⅛ mi | 100-50-25-15-10 | Auto berth |
| Apr 11 | Arkansas Derby | Oaklawn | 1⅛ mi | 100-50-25-15-10 | Final prep, auto berth |
| Apr 11 | Lexington S. | Keeneland | 1 1/16 mi | 20-10-6-4-2 | Last-chance qualifier |
| May 2 | KENTUCKY DERBY | Churchill Downs | 1¼ mi | $5M purse | Run for the Roses |
🏁 Final Thoughts on The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard
December reshaped the Derby narrative. Ted Noffey remains the points leader and likely favorite, but legitimate challengers emerged in Paladin, Further Ado, and a deeper crop of stalkers and closers than initially expected.
The Derby trail rewards patience, consistency, and the ability to peak at the right time. Horses who shine in November don’t always shine in May (see: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners who flop in the Derby). Conversely, horses who mature slowly through the winter often arrive at Churchill Downs as dangerous live longshots.
🎯 My Early Derby Watch List
- Ted Noffey — Favorite, but risky due to BC Juvenile curse
- Paladin — Complete package, Gun Runner bloodlines
- Further Ado — Polarizing but talented, Brad Cox factor
- Universe — Best value at current odds (20-1)
- Chip Honcho — Lightly raced sleeper with upside
The January preps will tell us everything. Horses who win 20-point races are legitimate. Horses who struggle at that level get exposed.
See you trackside.
❓ Reader Questions Answered
Q: Is Paladin the horse to beat now?
Not yet. He’s in the conversation, but Ted Noffey still holds 40 points to Paladin’s 10. Plus, Paladin needs to prove he can handle a higher class level. The Remsen was Grade 2; the Derby is the biggest race in the world. That said, his profile checks all the boxes, and I’d have him as a top-5 Derby contender right now.
Q: Why keep mentioning Baffert horses if they’re Derby-ineligible?
Because situations change. Horses can be transferred to eligible trainers (it’s happened before), or Churchill Downs could theoretically lift the suspension (unlikely but not impossible). Also, these horses will still run in major races like the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Q: Should I bet Derby futures now or wait until March?
Both strategies work. Bet futures now if you want maximum value on longshots (20-1 or higher). Wait until March if you want certainty about which horses will actually run. By late March, you’ll know which horses are pointing to the Derby, but their odds will be significantly shorter.
Q: How many points do you realistically need to make the Derby?
Historically, 40-50 points almost always gets you in. In shallow years, 35 has been enough. In deep years (like 2023), 55+ was required. My rule: If you have 40+ points by early April, you’re safe. If you’re sitting on 20-30 points, you need a big effort in a final prep race.
Universe. He’s 0-for-5 but improving every race, closing strongly in graded stakes company, and trained by Kenny McPeek (who won the Derby with Sarava at 50-1). If he breaks through for a win in a 20-point or 50-point race, his odds will plummet. Grab him now at 20-1 before the smart money catches on.
→ View Universe’s Full Equibase Profile
🔖 Your Action Plan
- ✅ Bookmark this page (updates after every major prep race)
- ✅ Watch the Lecomte Stakes (Jan. 17) — Ted Noffey’s likely return
- ✅ Track Paladin and Further Ado’s next starts (they’ll split paths)
- ✅ Consider futures tickets on Universe (20-1) and Chip Honcho (25-1)
- ✅ Monitor Baffert horses for potential trainer transfers
Next Update: January 20, 2026 (after Lecomte & Holy Bull Stakes)
⚠️ Responsible Wagering Notice
This guide is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes betting advice, and guaranteed outcomes are impossible in horse racing. Wager only what you can afford to lose.
Need Help? Confidential Resources:
- National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER (Call or Text)
- National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG): NCPGambling.org
- Must be 21+ only where legal.
📚 Sources & Data Verification
- Official points & schedule: Churchill Downs, KentuckyDerby.com
- Race results & charts: Equibase, America’s Best Racing, Thoroughbred Daily News
- Speed figures: Equibase Speed Figures, Brisnet ratings
- Expert analysis: Daily Racing Form, BloodHorse, Horse Racing Nation
- Workouts: Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, Keeneland clocking reports
- Pedigree & sales data: BloodHorse, The Jockey Club
- Personal insights: 25+ years of ownership experience, barn visits, trainer conversations
- Equibase Horse Profiles: Direct links provided for Further Ado, Paladin, and Universe
Last full verification: December 29, 2025
Next scheduled update: January 20, 2026 (after Lecomte & Holy Bull Stakes)
About Miles Henry
Racehorse Owner & Author | 30+ Years in Thoroughbred Racing
Miles Henry (legal name: William Bradley) is a Louisiana-licensed owner
#67012.
Beyond the racetrack, he’s cared for Quarter Horses, Friesians, Paints, and trail mounts for 30+ years—bringing hands-on experience to every breed profile, health guide, and gear review on this site.
His racehorses have finished in-the-money in
30 of their last 90 starts
Equibase Profile.
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