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The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby February Update

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The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby February Update

Last updated: April 8, 2026

By: Miles HenryFact Checked

Check out my most recent update: April Run for the Roses

This 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard reflects the latest results from major prep races, including the Louisiana Derby, Jeff Ruby Steaks, and Rebel Stakes.

These Kentucky Derby points standings track the official Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard used to determine the field. Only the top 20 point-earners qualify for the starting gate, with the cutoff typically falling between 35–45 points.

🏇 2026 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Last updated: March 25, 2026

Top 5 by points: Fulleffort (110), Emerging Market (100), Pavlovian (70), Paladin (60), Incredibolt (60)

Current leaders on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard following the latest 100-point Championship Series races.

🟢 Likely Starters (60+ Points)

Fulleffort
110 Pts
Winner: Jeff Ruby
Emerging Market
100 Pts
Winner: LA Derby
Pavlovian
70 Pts
Runner-up: LA Derby
Paladin
60 Pts
Winner: Risen Star
Incredibolt
60 Pts
Winner: Virginia Derby

🟡 Major Contenders (50 Points)

Horse Points
Commandment50
Class President50
Potente50
Iron Honor50

🔴 On the Bubble (Watch This Weekend)

Likely need a top-3 finish in upcoming Grade-1 preps to secure a spot in the 20-horse field:

Nearly (20 pts) • Chief Wallabee (25 pts) • Renegade (25 pts)

💡 Hidden Gem: Plutarch. Don’t ignore the West Coast momentum. After a sharp performance in the Robert B. Lewis, Plutarch is trending as a major threat at 18-1 odds.

Your Questions Answered?

Q: Is Paladin the real deal?

Yes. With 60 points and a dominant Risen Star win, he’s a locked starter. His 93 Beyer speed figure proves he can handle the distance at Churchill Downs.

Q: Ted Noffey out—what’s the impact?

Opportunity. His departure lowers the points-cutoff and opens a massive door for bubble horses. Keep a close eye on Nearly and Chief Wallabee (25 pts); both are showing sharp morning speed and only need a board-hitting performance this weekend to secure their spot.

🔖 Your Action Plan

  • ✅ Bookmark for weekly updates as the Top 20 field finalizes.
  • ✅ Watch the Florida & Arkansas Derbies (March 28) — These will determine the final “locks” for the 144-horse field.
  • ✅ Track Neary & Chief Wallabee workouts — These bubble horses need peak fitness for their “win-and-in” scenarios this Saturday.
  • ✅ Lock in Paladin 6-1 or Emerging Market 5-1 — These odds are likely to shorten significantly after the final preps.

📺 How to Watch: Saturday 100-Point Preps

🌍 UAE Derby: 9:35 AM ET
(FS2 / FanDuel TV)

☀️ Florida Derby: 6:42 PM ET
(NBCSN / Peacock / FanDuel TV)

🐎 Arkansas Derby: 7:48 PM ET
(FS1 / FanDuel TV)

*Post times are approximate and subject to change by the host tracks.

Next Update: April 4, 2026 (Following the final 100-point prep weekend).

⚠️ Responsible Wagering Notice

Informational only—no betting advice. Wager responsibly.

Help Resources:

📚 Sources & Data

  • Points/Schedule: KentuckyDerby.com, Churchill Downs
  • Results/Charts: Equibase, TDN
  • Figures: Beyer/DRF, Equibase
  • Analysis: BloodHorse, HRN
  • Insights: 30+ years ownership, barn intel

See you trackside, Miles—hope Hammond’s treating you well!