How to Bet the Preakness Stakes: Tips for Posts and Pace

Last updated: April 1, 2025

By: Miles HenryFact Checked

A winning Preakness Stakes betting strategy relies heavily on understanding how post positions, pace dynamics, and jockey tactics uniquely play out at Pimlico Race Course. With a shorter distance (1 3/16 miles) and tighter turns than the Kentucky Derby, mastering these elements gives bettors a crucial edge.

As the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness often attracts several Kentucky Derby participants alongside fresh contenders. Trainers frequently adapt strategies based on Derby results, horse recovery, and the shorter turnaround before the Belmont Stakes—factors that uniquely influence this race.

Drawing on my 25+ years of experience owning and training Thoroughbred racehorses, I’ve witnessed how trainers adapt their strategies for Pimlico and how tailoring your handicapping approach can significantly impact betting outcomes.

This guide reveals why the Preakness demands a tailored strategy, highlighting the importance of post position, pace analysis, and jockey expertise—providing actionable insights to inform your betting decisions on race day.

Post Positions at Pimlico: Navigating a Shorter Distance

Understanding which post position wins the most in horse racing is essential, especially at Pimlico, where tight turns can significantly impact outcomes. Weather also influences post position advantages—wet track conditions at Pimlico typically favor inside gates because of firmer footing near the rail.

Historically, middle post positions (gates 4-7) offer optimal tactical flexibility because jockeys can avoid rail congestion while minimizing ground loss around turns. Specifically, between 2000 and 2023, gates 5 and 6 notably outperformed other post positions.

Additionally, Pimlico generally hosts a smaller field than the Kentucky Derby, which can reduce traffic concerns early in the race. However, this also intensifies the importance of securing a good position quickly, as there is typically less room for late-race adjustments.

As illustrated above, middle post positions—especially gates #4 through #7 (yellow, green, black, orange towels)—have historically performed best in the Preakness Stakes, with post #6 (black) notably leading at a 15% win rate. In contrast, outer posts (9 and beyond) struggle due to Pimlico’s tighter turns and shorter run to the first turn.

Post Position	Win %	Towel Color
6	15.0%	Black
7	13.5%	Orange
4	12.1%	Yellow
5	11.4%	Green

How Pace Dynamics Shift at 1 3/16 Miles

The shorter distance of the Preakness significantly changes pace dynamics compared to the Kentucky Derby. With less ground to cover, establishing early speed and tactical positioning becomes paramount. Horses that quickly secure forward spots without overextending typically have a strong advantage at Pimlico.

Unlike the Derby, where closers have more distance to rally, Pimlico’s shorter stretch makes it challenging for late-running horses to overcome even moderate early fractions. Therefore, horses with tactical speed—those capable of tracking leaders closely and responding quickly in the stretch—often prevail.

Pimlico’s tighter turns also emphasize the importance of securing a forward position early, particularly for inside runners who can save ground and capitalize on shorter distances.

The smaller field size at Pimlico also influences pace scenarios, often leading to clearer early race dynamics compared to the typically crowded Kentucky Derby. Fewer horses mean jockeys can execute more deliberate tactical decisions without navigating extensive traffic.

Notable recent examples include:

• War of Will (2019), who leveraged tactical speed from the rail position, quickly established a forward spot, and maintained momentum throughout.
• Justify (2018), who effectively dictated pace and controlled the race from start to finish, demonstrating the advantages of strategic early positioning. (For a deeper understanding of these advantages, refer to this study on equine speed and racing strategy.)

Pimlico’s pace dynamics have decisively shaped other recent outcomes as well:

• In 2013, Oxbow comfortably controlled a slow early pace, leading from gate to wire under Gary Stevens.
• In 2016, Exaggerator took advantage of a fast pace set by early leaders, rallying strongly from mid-pack to win.

These examples illustrate why careful pace analysis—determining if the early pace will likely be contested or uncontested—is essential when handicapping the Preakness. For deeper insights into how pace influences race outcomes, explore my detailed guide on Understanding Horse Speed and Conditioning.

Historical Trends: Jockey Decisions That Made the Difference

The role of jockey experience is especially critical in the Preakness Stakes, where split-second tactical decisions often determine the outcome. Pimlico’s shorter stretch gives jockeys less time to maneuver for position, making early tactical decisions even more critical.

At Pimlico, successful jockeys strategically position their horses early, expertly navigating its unique pace dynamics and tighter turns. Two memorable examples highlight the value of experienced jockey tactics:

Several jockeys have consistently shown exceptional results at Pimlico:

• Pat Day, known for patient, tactical rides, secured five Preakness victories by expertly judging pace.
• Jerry Bailey similarly earned multiple Preakness wins by skillfully positioning his mounts early.
• Mike Smith excels with forwardly-placed horses like Justify (2018), showcasing aggressive yet controlled riding strategies.
• Gary Stevens aboard Oxbow (2013): Stevens swiftly took control by establishing an uncontested early lead, skillfully managing the pace to secure a decisive victory.

These rides underscore why selecting horses ridden by jockeys with proven success at Pimlico can significantly boost your betting strategy. For a deeper dive into how jockeys influence outcomes, check out my detailed breakdown of How Jockeys Make Horses Go Faster.

To see historical performance statistics for major racetracks, you can explore detailed records from Keeneland’s post position statistics or visit The Jockey Club’s resources.

Case Studies: Horses That Overcame Difficult Posts to Win the Preakness

To understand why strategic rides and tactical speed are critical at Pimlico, consider these notable examples of horses that overcame challenging post positions to secure victory:

• Afleet Alex (2005, Post 12): Showed remarkable resilience, nearly falling after clipping heels during the race yet quickly regaining stride to decisively win—highlighting extraordinary jockey skill and horse agility.
• War of Will (2019, Post 1): War of Will (2019) overcame a challenging rail post, demonstrating the strategic importance of jockey skill and pace analysis. To understand other race-specific equipment strategies, you might explore why horses sometimes use tongue ties for better performance.

Both Afleet Alex and War of Will capitalized on smaller Preakness fields, where fewer horses allowed them to establish better positioning despite challenging posts. These case studies underscore the importance of tactical speed, jockey expertise, and resilience in overcoming difficult post draws in the Preakness Stakes.

Final Recommendations: Betting Tips for Preakness Success

Applying the right betting strategy for the Preakness Stakes involves carefully considering the unique dynamics of Pimlico. Based on historical trends and key insights, here are my top recommendations:

• Prioritize Tactical Speed: Horses capable of breaking cleanly and quickly securing advantageous early positions are prime contenders at Pimlico.
• Analyze Pace Carefully: Evaluate if the race pace will be contested or uncontested to identify horses whose running styles match the anticipated race dynamics.
• Respect Experienced Jockeys: Give preference to jockeys with proven track records at Pimlico who excel at making swift, tactical decisions.
• Consider Post Position Strategically: Middle post positions generally offer the greatest tactical flexibility. Horses starting from inside posts must break sharply, while exceptional horses with tactical speed can successfully navigate wider draws.

Success at Pimlico involves carefully analyzing pace, jockey tactics, and betting strategies. If you’re newer to wagering or want to refine your approach, my article Mastering Betting Basics and Strategies is a helpful resource.

💡 Pro Tip: Tactical speed and early positioning often determine success in the Preakness Stakes. Prioritize horses and jockeys known for effectively securing and maintaining ideal early race positions.

FAQs About Betting Strategy for the Preakness Stakes

🏁 Conclusion: Sharpening Your Preakness Stakes Edge

Mastering your Preakness Stakes strategy means understanding how Pimlico’s shorter distance uniquely affects post positions, pace dynamics, and jockey tactics. By evaluating each horse’s running style carefully against anticipated race scenarios and track conditions, you significantly enhance your handicapping accuracy. Use historical trends and insights from proven jockey strategies to confidently place informed bets.

For further insights into related strategies, revisit my Kentucky Derby strategy guide or my article on the Belmont Stakes strategy. For a deeper exploration of major racing events, check out The 13 Biggest Horse Races in the U.S. and The Most Popular Horse Races in the World. For official information about upcoming races, visit the official Preakness Stakes website or the Belmont Stakes page.

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