2026 Haskell Stakes Picks and Analysis

Last updated: July 26, 2026

By: Miles HenryFact Checked

My Pick: Further Ado (2-1) on top — the class edge is real. For value, I’m using The Puma (7-2) underneath; he’s already beaten Further Ado head-to-head in the Tampa Bay Derby, which is stronger evidence than anything built on potential. Exacta: Further Ado / The Puma. Full reasoning, the pace breakdown, and my complete ticket are in the picks section below.

Haskell Stakes 2026: Key Race Facts

The Haskell is the premier mid-summer race for three-year-olds, bridging the Triple Crown trail to the Breeders’ Cup. Past winners include American Pharoah, Authentic, Rachel Alexandra, and most recently 2025 winner Journalism. It consistently draws the best of the sophomore class and has produced Breeders’ Cup Classic winners and Eclipse Award champions. For a full history and track profile, see the Haskell Stakes guide.

How the Haskell Sets Up — Pace and Track Profile

Monmouth Park at nine furlongs rewards a specific type of trip. The stretch at Monmouth is relatively short compared to tracks like Churchill Downs or Saratoga, which limits the ground available for deep closers to make up time. Understanding pace figures and furlong conversion helps here — the historical winner profile tilts toward pressers and stalkers who track within a few lengths of the leader, not horses who spot the field six or eight lengths and come running. That does not mean closers cannot win — they can — but they need pace to run at, and they need position entering the stretch.

The pace picture changed substantially when Crude Velocity — who missed a workout and did not make the final field — was scratched from consideration. That removes the field’s most committed pure front-runner, leaving a range from uncontested to moderately pressured rather than the genuine speed duel this looked like pre-draw. Three horses can shape where on that spectrum the race actually lands: The Puma (post 4) and Napoleon Solo (post 6) project as the likeliest pace factors, with Star Sweeper (post 1) capable of pressing from the rail if his connections choose to use his speed rather than sit. Further Ado tracks from just off that group, which is exactly the running style he needs at this distance. Either way this settles, it favors horses with tactical speed and a clean trip over pure closers.

2026 Haskell Contenders: Horse-by-Horse Analysis

2026 Haskell Stakes — official field, post positions, and morning-line odds

Post	Horse	Trainer / Jockey	M/L Odds	Key Angle
1	Star Sweeper	Louis C. Linder Jr. / Luis R. Rivera Jr.	30-1	Longest shot on the board; set the pace and fought late in the Long Branch, but has yet to threaten at stakes company
2	Further Ado	Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr.	2-1 (favorite)	11-length Blue Grass winner; bounced back with Matt Winn win after 11th in the Derby; Cox calls him “the best two-turn 3-year-old in the country”
3	Baby Vino	Lindsay Schultz / Jorge Vargas Jr.	15-1	Won Pegasus by 10¾ lengths on this track; first Grade 1 start; jockey change from Lopez, who is now on Napoleon Solo
4	The Puma	Gustavo Delgado / Luis Saez	7-2	Missed the Derby with a skin infection; Florida Derby runner-up; first start since March; same connections as 2023 Haskell runner-up Mage
5	Iron Honor	Chad Brown / Flavien Prat	3-1	Preakness runner-up; Brown skipped the Belmont with him to let him mature; blinkers came off before the Preakness
6	Napoleon Solo	Chad Summers / Paco Lopez	5-2	Preakness winner; sold after the Triple Crown but kept trainer and jockey; Lopez is Monmouth’s leading rider
7	Ocelli	Whit Beckman / Tyler Gaffalione	6-1	Still a maiden after nine starts despite six straight stakes tries; third in the Derby, fourth in the Preakness, second in the Ohio Derby

Further Ado — The Post-Draw Favorite, and With Good Reason

Further Ado drew post 2 and was installed the 2-1 favorite, and the case is straightforward: an 11-length romp in the Blue Grass, a competitive if troubled 11th in the Kentucky Derby, and a bounce-back win at odds-on in the Matt Winn. Trainer Brad Cox — who has won this race twice, with Mandaloun in 2021 and Cyberknife in 2022 — called Further Ado “the best two-turn 3-year-old in the country” after the draw. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount, coming down from Saratoga specifically for this ride.

Post 2 is a fine draw for his running style — close enough to save ground, far enough outside to avoid getting buried in traffic early. He’s not a pure stalker; he has the tactical speed to sit closer or drop back depending on how the pace unfolds, which matters with The Puma and Napoleon Solo drawing outside him in posts 4 and 6. Here’s the honest knock worth stating directly: every win of his career has come in Kentucky, at Churchill Downs or Keeneland. That’s a real pattern, not a coincidence to wave off, and it’s fair to ask whether the horse or just the venue has been doing the winning. Cox’s own history argues against reading too much into it — Cyberknife followed this exact Matt Winn-to-Haskell path out of Kentucky in 2022 and won it at Monmouth. The remaining question is whether the Blue Grass number or the Derby trip is the more accurate read on this horse.

Napoleon Solo — Post 6, Lopez Stays On

Napoleon Solo drew post 6 and was made the 5-2 second choice. He won the Preakness at Laurel Park by 1¼ lengths over Iron Honor with Paco Lopez aboard — Lopez’s first Triple Crown win — and was subsequently sold to new ownership while retaining trainer Chad Summers and Lopez in the saddle. That continuity of connections is a real positive after an ownership change.

Lopez is Monmouth Park’s perennial leading rider and knows this track as well as anyone in the field. Napoleon Solo’s tactical speed is now one of the more important pieces of that pace spectrum, and there’s real disagreement about where he lands on it. My read has him sharing the pace with The Puma. Racing Dudes’ preview takes it further, arguing he may be the field’s only committed speed and could get the uncontested side of that range. Either way, post 6 means he’ll need to secure position early rather than draw into a soft trip.

Iron Honor — Post 5, Brown’s Deliberate Campaign

Iron Honor drew post 5 and sits third choice at 3-1. He finished second in the Preakness, 1¼ lengths behind Napoleon Solo, after a rough Wood Memorial trip prompted Chad Brown to remove the blinkers. “He’s a quirky horse and was hard to figure out,” Brown said. “That’s why the blinkers came off in the Preakness.” That Wood Memorial has aged well as a form reference — the winner came back to take the Preakness, and both Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor, who finished well back that day, followed him into the Preakness exacta. It’s a small sample, but it argues the race was deeper than the trip-troubled result suggested at the time. Brown also skipped the Belmont Stakes entirely with Iron Honor specifically to give him more time to mature before targeting the Haskell — a deliberate, patient campaign from a trainer with nine Haskell wins to his name.

Flavien Prat gets the mount for the second time. Post 5 is a workable draw — inside enough to save ground without being trapped on the rail, outside the presumed pace-setters in posts 4 and 6. Iron Honor’s rating style fits well regardless of where this pace lands on the spectrum, which is exactly the scenario Brown’s blueprint is built for.

Baby Vino — Post 3, New Rider, Same Question

Baby Vino is by Vino Rosso — I have a horse named Corked out of Vino Rosso, so I’ve been watching this sire closely. Marcus Osborn of Cosmo Stable bought Baby Vino as a yearling and kept faith through five maiden starts at Oaklawn before the horse broke through, then won the Pegasus by 10¾ lengths three weeks later on this same Monmouth surface. Drawing post 3 keeps him close to the rail without being trapped there.

The jockey change here matters: Paco Lopez, who rode Baby Vino to that Pegasus win, is now on Napoleon Solo — Jorge Vargas Jr. takes over for a horse making his first Grade 1 start, stacking a new rider on top of the class question. A 10¾-length win in a listed prep tells you how good Baby Vino is relative to that field, not relative to Further Ado and Iron Honor.

The Puma, Star Sweeper, Ocelli — Situational Plays

The Puma drew post 4 and is the 7-2 fourth choice, and he’s got the strongest evidence-based case in the field for a horse not named Further Ado: he’s already beaten him. The Puma ran down Further Ado to win the Tampa Bay Derby with a sweeping late move, then came back to finish a nose behind Commandment in the Florida Derby — Commandment went on to run second in the Belmont. He’s finished on the podium in all four career starts, the only horse in this field who can say that. He missed the Kentucky Derby with a skin infection and hasn’t started since March, which is the real question mark, and he now figures to vie for the early lead with Napoleon Solo, a pace role rather than his more typical closing profile. Gustavo Delgado runs the same connections who finished second in the 2023 Haskell with Mage. Luis Saez picks up the mount for the first time, replacing regular rider Javier Castellano; that matters less than the four-month layoff does, but it’s one more new variable on a horse making his first start in over 100 days.

Star Sweeper drew the rail at 30-1, the longest price in the field. He set the pace and fought gamely late to finish second in the Long Branch, but has been beaten 10 lengths or more in six other stakes tries. If his connections commit to using his speed from the inside post, he could factor early — but backing him to finish the job against this class is a real stretch. He belongs on tickets only as a deep, cheap longshot.

Ocelli drew the outside post at 6-1. He’s still a maiden after nine career starts despite six consecutive stakes tries — third in the Kentucky Derby, fourth in the Preakness, second in the Ohio Derby. Worth noting: he actually finished ahead of both Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor in the Wood Memorial, the two horses who went on to run 1-2 in the Preakness. That’s a horse who keeps finding trouble in the money spots rather than the winner’s circle, but the graded-stakes consistency against this level of competition is real and shouldn’t be dismissed simply because he hasn’t broken through yet. He’s a fit for exactas and trifectas underneath the top contenders, not for multi-race sequences — the win still hasn’t shown up after nine tries, but hitting the board has been reliable.

2026 Haskell Betting Picks and Strategy

If you are newer to handicapping horses, see that guide first — the analysis below assumes basic familiarity with running styles and track configuration. Horse racing picks do not guarantee outcomes; use this as analysis, not financial advice.

Win bet — after weighing multiple independent previews against my own read: Further Ado at 2-1 is still the right horse on top of the board. The class edge is real, and Cyberknife’s identical path out of Kentucky to a Haskell win undercuts the “only wins in Kentucky” concern more than it confirms it. But two things changed my thinking after going through this research. First, The Puma has already beaten Further Ado, head-to-head, in the Tampa Bay Derby — that’s a stronger argument than anything built on workouts or potential. Second, two separate approaches — one data-driven, one built on frame-by-frame film study of the Preakness — independently concluded that Napoleon Solo and Paco Lopez are live to get an easy, well-managed pace, the exact trip that produced his Preakness win.

So here’s where I land: Further Ado on top, but I’m no longer alone there — I’m using The Puma and Napoleon Solo both underneath at real prices, not as afterthoughts. Iron Honor stays in the mix as the rating-style horse this pace should suit, but with The Puma’s actual head-to-head win over the favorite now in the picture, I’d rather have Puma’s proven case than Iron Honor’s conditional one if I’m picking a single value play. Layoff and new rider are real risks on The Puma; a short-Kentucky-only resume is a real risk on Further Ado; an uncontested pace collapsing late is the real risk on Napoleon Solo. None of the top four is risk-free, which is exactly why this race is getting split three ways among experienced professional handicappers rather than converging on one horse.

Scenario betting: If The Puma and Napoleon Solo go on with the pace as projected and nobody else contests it, this becomes a race about who’s sitting closest with the most left in the tank turning for home — that’s Iron Honor’s and Further Ado’s spot. If Star Sweeper’s connections decide to use his speed from the rail instead of taking back, the pace gets a third player and this could set up even better for the stalkers.

Sample ticket — $2 exacta box: Further Ado / The Puma / Napoleon Solo. If exotic bets are new to you, the linked guide explains how exactas, trifectas, and superfectas work. Four combinations covers the two most evidence-backed scenarios — the favorite completing the job, or the horse who already beat him doing it again. Total cost: $12.

Trifecta: Key Further Ado and The Puma on top, use Napoleon Solo, Iron Honor, Baby Vino, and Ocelli in the second and third slots. Star Sweeper as a deep longshot on the underneath only. The goal is covering the two horses with the most concrete evidence behind them — one on class, one on a head-to-head win — while giving yourself multiple paths to a meaningful Haskell trifecta payout in a compact seven-horse field.

What to avoid: Further Ado below 2-1 if the price shortens further — his own trainer’s confidence is real, but paying a heavy premium in a seven-horse field with a live pace question and an unresolved venue pattern leaves little margin for error. Baby Vino at his current price against this company with a new rider aboard for the first time. Don’t use Star Sweeper as more than a token longshot inclusion — the class gap against this field is significant. One more thing worth checking Saturday morning: the weather. Rain was in the forecast discussion as of this week, and a wet track shifts things toward horses with mud pedigree — worth a last look at the forecast before you finalize anything.

FAQs: 2026 Haskell Stakes